Welcome back to the exercise in futility that is picking NFL games against the spread.
Oh, right. You have no problem with it. Hit like 70 percent. 75 percent, you say? Sure. Let me tell you something, if you truly and honestly hit anything north of two-thirds of your picks against the spread, I hope you live in Las Vegas because you are the greatest handicapper in the world. Hitting 60 percent puts you among the absolute elite.
It's very, very hard to pick NFL games against the spread. The teams are too evenly matched, the lines are too tight and too many games come down to unpredictable bounces (yes, I hate to say, luck is often a factor in NFL games). If you saw my horrible record last year, you know I haven't figured out the secret.
The few people who have success betting on sports professionally have a really unique skill set. It's very hard to do. The NFL is particularly tough. With the amount of action sports books get on NFL games, there's never a soft line. You might catch the oddsmakers napping on a Pepperdine-St. Mary's hoops game in February, but not on the NFL. Almost every NFL line is going to be fairly sharp.
So why will I be writing this post every week? Because it's fun. I don't advise anyone to follow my picks. Betting on the NFL is incredibly difficult and I'm not the guy who has cracked the code (though I'll try again for 17 weeks this year ... and I'll definitely beat Shaun King's record in the videos you'll find at the top of the posts). And why did I write this intro? So I'll have something to copy and paste to the people who contact me to complain about my record this season.
And now, let's start the picks (and all season, the lines will come from the Yahoo Pro Football Pick 'em).
Seattle (-6) over Green Bay (picked already): Well, well. Maybe this isn't so hard after all. Seriously though, that was an incredible performance by the Seahawks.
New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta: Fun opener. I guess if I'm going to say Drew Brees will win an MVP and can make a run at 6,000 yards it would be weird to pick the Saints to lose the opener.
Buffalo (+7) over Chicago: Someone has to win, Buffalo's offense or Chicago's defense. Both looked miserable this preseason. I think the Bills can do just enough to keep it close. And I'm not ready to lay a touchdown with Chicago's defense until I see something from that group.
Tennessee (+3.5) over Kansas City: I like the Titans to win here. The points are just a bonus.
St. Louis (-3.5) over Minnesota: It's amazing how Sam Bradford's reputation has grown since he tore his ACL again. Are we absolutely certain Shaun Hill isn't at least 90 percent of Bradford anyway?
Miami (+5) over New England: I think the Dolphins will be better than people think right now. I'm not sure they beat the Patriots straight up, but I'll take the points.
N.Y. Jets (-5.5) over Oakland: Derek Carr looked great in that last preseason game. And I can't think of a worse regular-season debut than against a Rex Ryan defense. Carr will see blitz packages he can't even imagine right now.
Jacksonville (+10.5) over Philadelphia: Not sure why or how but I think the Jaguars give them a game. Maybe it's because I know everyone in America has already filled in "Eagles" in their survivor pool.
Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Cleveland: Here's your survivor pool pick. Nothing Brian Hoyer did this preseason led me to believe the Browns can move the ball on Sunday. The Steelers might need to score just one touchdown to cover this spread.
Cincinnati (+2) over Baltimore: Unless new Ravens offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is a miracle worker, I'm not sure Baltimore is going to get too much against that Bengals defense, especially with Ray Rice out.
Washington (+3) over Houston: When in doubt, take the points, right? Figure the Redskins can at least hit a big play or two.
San Francisco (-5) over Dallas: Listening to people, the 49ers turned into just some random mediocre team overnight. I don't get it. They'll be just fine, and just wait until they get some guys back at midseason.
Tampa Bay (-2) over Carolina: Obviously this is a slam dunk if Cam Newton doesn't play. I think he will. And i think the Buccaneers are going to pick at every weakness the Panthers' offense has.
Indianapolis (+7.5) over Denver: The Broncos offense could blow out the Colts, but I think Indianapolis keeps it close enough to cover. Both teams understand the result of this game will likely be talked about in December when we discuss seeding and tiebreakers.
N.Y. Giants (+5.5) over Detroit: Are these the two most enigmatic teams in the NFL? It's hard to trust the Giants after how they struggled this preseason, but I think I trust the Lions even less.
San Diego (+3) over Arizona: The news that Andre Ellington might be out a while means more offensive responsibility goes on Carson Palmer ... yeah, give me the Chargers.
Record to date: 1-0
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdowncorner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
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